Is UK democracy facing an existential threat? One strategist thinks so, and he's calling for a complete overhaul of Labour's strategy to combat it. Sir Chris Powell, a former advertising guru for New Labour and brother to Keir Starmer's national security advisor, Jonathan Powell, is sounding the alarm about the growing influence of populist movements, specifically Reform UK. He believes these groups pose a "new and terrifying threat" to the UK and its democratic institutions, and that Labour is woefully unprepared to counter them.
Powell argues that Labour leader Keir Starmer needs to undertake a "fundamental reset" of his approach. He warns that there are only three years to prevent Reform UK from becoming a firmly established and credible alternative government in the minds of disillusioned voters. "We simply cannot afford to allow Reform UK to have a free run," Powell writes, emphasizing the urgency of the situation. He cautions against complacency, stating that simply hoping Reform UK and its prominent figure, Nigel Farage, will self-destruct, or that the right-wing vote will naturally split, is a "potentially suicidal" strategy for the preservation of freedom and democracy in the UK.
But here's where it gets controversial... Powell's critique comes at a time when Starmer is already facing significant internal discontent within the Labour party. Poor poll ratings and Starmer's own personal unpopularity have fueled concerns. Meanwhile, Reform UK has been leading in opinion polls for nearly a year, indicating a shift in public sentiment that cannot be ignored. The Prime Minister is planning a renewed effort to address the cost of living crisis through measures like energy bill reductions, interest rate adjustments, and potentially ending the two-child benefit cap, promising voters will see improvements in their lives by 2026.
The government is also aware of Farage and Reform's strong social media presence and is planning to revamp its communications strategy to better connect with voters through new channels like TikTok, utilizing influencers and viral videos. A Labour party source stated that they are "tackling the problems that populists exploit, in particular the cost of living." They added that the Prime Minister has consistently condemned the "politics of division" promoted by Reform and will continue to collaborate with grassroots activists to combat their influence. And this is the part most people miss - the government acknowledges the threat, but Powell suggests their response is inadequate.
Powell, who spearheaded the advertising campaign that contributed to Labour's landslide victory in 1997, believes the current social media engagement is "small scale" and that the government's narrative is often overshadowed by its own internal struggles and shortcomings. As part of his "Winning Against Populists" project with David Cowan, founder of a data and consumer research consultancy, Powell stresses the need for Labour to "wage and win the daily war for attention." The goal, he says, is to ensure Labour's voice is heard amidst the constant barrage of information voters encounter online. He emphasizes the importance of engaging with voters on the issues that matter most to them. He cites the example of a Democratic governor who successfully won in a Republican state by consistently addressing "bread and butter issues" like jobs, roads, schools, and prices in clear and simple language.
Recalling a pivotal moment in 1995 when Tony Blair and his team gathered at Powell's home for their first election planning meeting, Powell argues that Starmer and Labour require a similarly radical overhaul. This necessitates "new strategy, new branding, new policy, new presentation, new organisation… this kind of no-holds-barred thinking is needed. A fundamental re-set." He describes the current situation as a "textbook case of an establishment party caught in the headlights, as its populist opponent expertly fills the vacuum of voter pain and disrespect." Powell concludes that relying solely on containment or a reluctant "hold-your-nose" vote is a flawed strategy that will ultimately fail. He insists that Labour needs a comprehensive action plan immediately, emphasizing that "time is a luxury they can’t afford."
Some within Downing Street believe that when faced with a choice between Starmer and Farage, voters with progressive leanings will ultimately vote to block Reform UK, even if their preferences lie with other parties on the center or left. However, many Labour MPs are deeply concerned that this is a complacent strategy that underestimates Farage and Reform's potential. The upcoming elections in Wales and Scotland, along with local elections in England, will serve as a crucial test to determine whether Reform's dominance in opinion polls will translate into actual seats. Heavy losses for Labour in these elections could potentially jeopardize Starmer's leadership. Starmer is planning a series of New Year's drinks receptions for Labour MPs at Chequers in an attempt to alleviate concerns about potential losses in the local and devolved elections in 2026. In a veiled jab at Reform UK in his New Year's message, the Prime Minister stated, "We are getting Britain back on track. By staying the course, we will defeat the decline and division offered by others."
So, is Labour right to be complacent, or is Powell correct in his assessment that a complete reset is needed? Does the current strategy adequately address the concerns of disillusioned voters who are drawn to populist movements? And perhaps most importantly, what concrete steps can Labour take to effectively counter the rise of Reform UK and other populist forces? Share your thoughts and opinions in the comments below!
